Risk For Geeks Is Here

The proposed electoral boundaries just got released, so get set for Cage Wars: MLA Edition. Instead of doing battle with fists and folding chairs, MLAs fight for their political lives by using membership books and vanloads of old people and Hutterites.

Most of the ridings were tweaked here and there -- and I'll have more to say about it once I actually have time to sit down and look at them in more detail -- but the two big changes are the removal of a seat in southwest Manitoba and an extra seat, Tache, plunked onto the layers of exurbia east of Winnipeg.

These developments don't particularly help the Tories, who were probably hoping the new seat would pop up somewhere further south and west of where it did so it would automatically make up for the loss of a southwest Manitoba seat. While this shift probably puts La Verendrye more in play for the PCs, Tache will be pretty competitive as will St. Paul, which now takes in the west (and NDP-supporting) side of the river.

In the city, the main change is this new Pembina-Jubilee seat, which merges parts of Lord Roberts with Fort Garry while Fort Garry shifts south towards U of M. Pembina-Jubilee is an interesting seat not just because it's new, but because it might open up in 2011 should Diane McGifford call it quits (which was expected last spring, but didn't materialize).

Go forth, boundary geeks - spin away on how this helps and hurts.

UPDATE: I'm with you, Frog Man -- it doesn't bode well for the PCs if Defeatist Doug at 23 Kennedy is whining about the NDP's "Fortress Winnipeg." You can complain about the unions, Bill 37, Elections Manitoba, etc. all you like, but you can't argue with the census.