Of Tories and Trains

Funny - I was under the impression that when "train wrecks" occur, they reflected more on the conductor(s) than anyone else.

After three years of Hugh McFadyen, the Progressive Conservatives have had two chiefs of staff and three directors of communication, not to mention a churn of research and political staff. To compare, over the course of his 10 years in power, Gary Doer had the same number of chiefs of staff (Bob Dewar and Michael Balagus) and chief spinners (Donne Flanagan, Riva Harrison and Jonathan Hildebrand. You could argue Jay Branch was No. 4, but I won't because he started only a month before Doer announced he was stepping down) that McFadyen has had in the course of three years.

Ultimately, to echo the argument that Paul Wells made earlier this week regarding the New DonOLO around Michael Ignatieff, new names on new organizational charts do not reverse polling deficits.

The chattering classes can fixate on What It All Means when Staffer A is replaced by Staffer B, but in the grand scheme of things it starts with the guy at the top and filters out to the rest of the elected team. And when Staffer A is replaced by B, then C and D and E in short succession, it makes you wonder if the problem doesn't lie a little deeper - and the solution might be a tad more complex and long term - than simply shuffling people and titles.

That Mailer

I heard about this from a reporter friend earlier today. I've griped repeatedly about the big pile of Conservative-supplied dead trees piling up in my mailbox, but I don't live in Winnipeg South Centre and thus haven't seen the latest and apparently most-controversial Tory mailer.

Until I get my hands on it, I'll pass judgement (Warren Kinsella claims it's "actionable," but this is coming from a guy who sues people for fun and recreation, so I'll wait before making the same determination).

If you have a copy, please make a PDF of it and send it yonder so I can post it in its entirety. Many thanks.

UPDATE: Someone was kind enough to send it along. And upon further review, while I find it a) an obnoxious waste of public dollars and b) misleading (the Bush administration was also at Durban I before its representatives walked out) and decontextualized, I don't think it's any worse than the other mailers that have been sent out by Tory MPs. And I'm no lawyer, but I don't see how it falls into the category of "actionable."

Heck, the front doesn't even mention the Liberals, nor does it directly suggest the party or its leader are "anti-Semitic." But you can judge that for yourselves.

Conservative Mailer Front

Conservative Mailer Back

Extra Time

Rather than go to the Irish Club and get heckled for wearing blue in a sea of green (and wool sweaters), due to work commitments I am following the last World Cup qualifier on the Guardian's website, and gnawing away what's left of my fingernails as France plays a tepid and uninspiring match against the underdog Republic o'Ireland.

And now it's going to extra time. Tabernacle, thirty more minutes of this...

This is what beer is for. Maybe there's a stale can laying around the office that can settle me down.

UPDATE: Well, that was no way to win. To my Irish friends (OK, friend), I feel your pain. That was an awful way to lose and I will be completely unprejudiced in my view that France do not deserve to be playing in South Africa.

Was it a handball? Most definitely (... and this shows it at the proper angle, over and over and over again. Plus Henry admitted he touched the ball). However, there is probably no way the ref could have seen it since Paul McShane (13) was blocking most views of the foul -- even most camera angles didn't pick it up. If you happen to know how to fool the IP address tracker thingie, you can see the clip and the rest of the game on TF1 (the French broadcaster) or RTE (the Irish one). Or don't bother and watch below:



This rather angry fellow with the brogue has a definitive clip of it. And though I don't share his wish for physical harm to befall Thierry Henry, I'd say he - and the five million other Irishmen and Irishwomen who have been jobbed out of seeing their squad in the World Cup next summer - might have a point or two.

The HST: A Numbers Game

When it comes to the HST and whether Manitoba should or should not adopt the tax measure our neighbours have signed up for, forget those projections about the province's marginal effective tax rate (METR), a proposed "Business Value Tax" and other wonkish, think-tanky measures of tax competitiveness.

Frankly, these are the only numbers that really matter in this argument:

Percentage of British Columbians who voted/would vote for the governing BC Liberal Party

May 2009 election: 46%
August 2009 (Mustel Group): 38% (vs. 46% NDP)
August 2009 (Angus Reid): 38% (vs. 41% NDP)

Gordon Campbell's Net Approval Rating (% Who Approve - % Who Disapprove)

May 2009 (Mustel): +2%
August 2009 (Mustel): -20%
August 2009 (Angus Reid): -31%

Percentage of Ontarians who would vote for the governing Ontario Liberal Party

July 2009 (Ipsos/Canwest): 45%
July 2009 (Environics): 44%
October 2009 (Ipsos/Canwest): 39%
October 2009 (Environics): 32%

You don't have to have an advanced degree in economics to figure this one out.

Update: Good timing, Nik Nanos! A new poll on Ontario's political scene shows the same trend accelerating there. While Dalton McGuinty has other problems (the eHealth scandal, crippling unemployment and a huge deficit), the HST doesn't help. Here's the latest party standings:

Ontario Liberal Party: 37% (-10% from May)
Ontario PC Party: 35% (+4% from May)
Ontario NDP: 17% (+2% from May)

Meanwhile, the "best premier" numbers are:

McGuinty: 27% (-15% from May)
Tim Hudak (PC leader): 17% (+3%)
Andrea Howarth (NDP Leader): 14% (+5%)

Sign Your Name, Get In Print

Forgive me for being a bit of a stickler for the old rules of the newspaper business for a moment, but if you want your letter to the editor to be published, don't you have to, you know, sign your actual name to what you wrote? Bob Brennan did that today.

Oh, and signing it "Ms. Whistles" probably doesn't count.

From The Penthouse To The Outhouse...

I could never understand how the Manitoba Liberal Party went from 20 seats and a legitimate shot at forming government in 1988 to a feuding three-seat rump - and a complete punchline - 10 years later.

But when we have a party that managed to do all this and more in less than two years, Manitoba's Liberal decline seems like it stretched over an eternity.

Even if it's positive to have a second federalist (or pseudo-federalist) alternative in Quebec, the sorry tale of the ADQ is beyond the point of ridiculousness.

Isn't it time to put this miserable party out of its misery for good?

Blog-tacular

Since I (and probably most of you) are not ones to roll out of bed at 6 am on Remembrance Day, I didn't see this when it first aired. Fortunately, this CityTV story on blogging has been flagged by one of its protagonists, Kenton Larsen.

And I'm happy to see another local blogger, Christian Cassidy, saying some wise things about blogging. At this rate, he's becoming the community's official spokesperson! In all seriousness though, the points he makes about anonymity and the blogosphere's continued reliance on mainstream journalism are boht well taken.

Make sure you check it out:

The Always Entertaining Brandon Sun Op-Ed Page Delivers Yet Again

Winnipeg has nothing on Brandon on two fronts: the entertainment value of its civic politics, and the entertainment value of its local paper's editorial page.

Further to last week's post on Brandon's 2010 mayoral race already being underway, The letters section in today's Brandon Sun features two side-splitting letters from two former mayoral candidates - one of whom continues to build her impressive case for why she should be Brandon's chief magistrate, and the other not only dousing cold water on his future political career, but also openly questioning the sanity of those who have decided to throw their hats in the ring.

First, Deveryn Ross, a bright and articulate - though highly polarizing - figure who ran for mayor in 2006. He finished a distant third to Dave Burgess, which in itself is an accomplishment given that a) he remains convicted of fraud (though he's maintained his innocence and filed a s. 696 appeal to have his conviction overturned) and b) two candidates for council seats said they would refuse to serve on council with him if he became mayor.

Anyway, it appears Deveryn has no desire to repeat his performance in 2006, and questions why anyone else would attempt to do the same:

Now that Shari Decter Hirst and Deborah Boschman have announced that they will be candidates in the upcoming municipal election, I have received numerous telephone calls and emails from persons wondering if I will be running again in 2010. In response to all of those inquiries, and in order to render further calls and emails unnecessary, this will again confirm that I have no intention of running for mayor or any other elected position.

Having settled that issue, there are a number of questions that any potential candidate for mayor or city council should be asking him or herself before they make the jump:

• Do you really, seriously, honestly, have a genuine chance of winning? If not, why are you even thinking of running?

• Is it because dozens, or even hundreds of Brandonites are asking you to? Or is it because you love to hear the sound of your own voice at debates, along with the media attention that comes with being a candidate?

• If you are considering running for mayor, do you have at least 200 volunteers willing to work long hours for your campaign? Do you have at least $10,000 to spend on advertising and campaign materials? Dave Burgess spent more than that in an election that was almost impossible for him to lose. If seriously challenged, I suggest he could spend upwards of $20,000 in 2010. Can you compete with that kind of spending?

• If you are running for city council, are there at least 20 people willing to help you put up signs, make phone calls and walk door to door with you? Are you willing and able to spend at least $1,000 on advertising, brochures, signs and other materials?

• How much of your privacy and family time are you willing to sacrifice? Are you really willing to be constantly stopped on the street, or to answer telephone calls at all hours to hear peoples’ complaints?

• Is your skin thick enough for a campaign? Are you prepared to have people gossip, speculate and spread rumours about your intelligence, sanity, honesty, ethics, marital status, sexual orientation and just about any other aspect of your personal life?

• Can you handle people pointing at you (and sometimes laughing with their friends) when you walk into a public place?

• Are you aware of — and willing to accept — the possibility that you will be ridiculed, threatened, spit upon or even punched while campaigning door to door? Those things happened to various candidates during the last mayoral campaign. In some cases, to more than one of us.

If after seriously considering all of those questions you remain willing to run for mayor or city council, then I encourage you to do so. But only after you have your head examined.

Ouch. Now, for a less cynical view, Ms. Deborah Boschman. Take it away, Deborah.

I just want the electorate to know that I think that we should be creating a buzz around Brandon.

I believe that people should be talking about Brandon continually for all of the right reasons. I think that everyone in the world should know where Brandon is.

I just contacted John Mayer and Jennifer Aniston last night via John Mayer’s Facebook account. (ed. note: Will they even show up together?)

I asked them to consider coming to Brandon because I told them that we are fundraising for all sorts of projects within Brandon and that their visibility would help us.

I then asked Mr. Mayer to contact Bono from U2 and I asked them to consider coming to Brandon and also doing a World End to Poverty concert or something from our city. (ed. note: Getting Willie Nelson to play a Farm Aid show might be more appropriate for the local, but I digress...)

I told them that we are located right smack dab in the centre of Canada and I asked them to consider this proposal and get back to me.

This is what I feel leadership is all about. It’s about wanting to create economic development, it’s about pursuing this and it’s about creating a buzz and having people talk about Brandon and what’s happening here.

This is what I am going to continue to do and just one of these times, after you have contacted enough individuals, someone may take you up on your offer and then off you go.

Leadership is about persistence, never giving up, never quitting, always pursuing, contacting leaders, countries, cities all over the world and connecting, communicating with them. (Ed note. Including when the file a restraining order?!)

I believe that leadership is about constantly moving forward and trying to improve the conditions for those that you were elected to serve and to represent.

Sweet Lord - pass the popcorn. This is going to be another fun civic race.

There's Always Time For Boot Camps

When I first heard the PC Party was toying with the notion of bringing back boot - scratch that, building kinder and gentler "wilderness camps" - for young ne'er-do-wells, I wanted to applaud them.

I just assumed with Tim Hortons backing out on its plans to build its own camp at Meditation Lake, someone else was stepping up to the plate and making sure the kids get out to nature.

A Day With Dr. Flanagan

This is extremely short notice, but if you're a political junkie and you have time to sneak over to the University of Manitoba today, there are not one, but two chances to learn a thing or two from one of the most interesting figures in Canadian politics today - Tom Flanagan.

Dr. Flanagan - perhaps best known as Stephen Harper's former campaign manager and one of the intellectual leaders of the former Reform party, but also a noted and somewhat controversial academic from the University of Calgary - has two speaking engagements today at the U of M. His first, at 12:30 in the University College lounge, deals with the last election campaign. Later, at 2:30 in 306 Tier, he's speaking to political science students. I'm busy earlier, but I'm going to try and check out Talk No. 2.

Given a) this lame attempt to keep Flanagan off campus and b) the frequent characterization of Dr. Flanagan on our local paper's op-ed pages as a Machiavellian schemer bent on wiping out Canadian progressives like the Jedi, why can't I shake the feeling the lecture will resemble this?